Trump’s Antics and the Ripple Effects Behind the Curtain

Speculative Thoughts on Tariffs, Markets, and What It Might Mean for Startups

Let’s be clear: this is speculative. Nothing is confirmed. But based on what we’re seeing play out — especially around Trump’s reintroduction of tariffs, investor reactions, and global market shifts — it’s worth exploring what the downstream impacts could be, particularly for startups in Australia and across the Asia-Pacific region.

🧭 The Return of Tariffs — and a Whole Lot of Confusion

Trump’s trade policy is back in full swing — and it’s causing waves. His tariffs were originally aimed at countries running trade surpluses with the U.S., essentially punishing those exporting more to America than they were buying from it. But in practice, the tariffs hit broadly, including allies and even countries where the U.S. had no deficit.

What’s the real play here? Hard to say. Some believe it’s part of a wider attempt to restructure the U.S. economy, shifting wealth and power away from labour and back toward corporations — a move very on-brand for Trump’s pro-business, pro-capitalism ideology.

📉 The Short-Term Flow-On Effects

The ripple effects are already showing:

• Interest rates are being cut — a signal of concern and an attempt to stimulate consumer spending before a full-blown recession sets in. Maybe too late, or was this the plan all along..

• As imported goods become more expensive, U.S. consumers will feel the squeeze. Ironically, that might be the point — a push to bring manufacturing home.

• But if consumers tighten their wallets too quickly, spending slows across the board. The result? Downturns, layoffs, and even housing instability if rates don’t stay low enough to support lending.

🚀 What This Means for Startups

This is where it gets particularly interesting — and variable — for founders. The impact largely depends on what you sell and who you sell it to.

🛍️ Consumer Goods Startups

If you manufacture offshore — particularly in China or Southeast Asia — and sell into the U.S., you’ll be directly impacted.

• Tariffs will increase the cost of raw materials and finished goods, putting pressure on your margins.

• Many startups will need to revisit pricing strategies, absorb costs, or find new manufacturers in countries like Vietnam or Singapore.

• Customer demand may drop as prices rise and consumers become more cautious.

• Inventory forecasting will become harder, and cash flow may tighten.

At the moment it is forecasted that the cost of living for a US resident will increase significantly, some researchers say as much as from $4k – $8k, resulting in less disposable income.

💻 Digital Startups & SaaS

You’re not shipping physical goods, so you’re safe from direct tariffs — but that doesn’t mean you’re immune.

• Investor sentiment is shifting. With market uncertainty, especially in the U.S., expect slower capital deployment, more conservative valuations, and longer due diligence processes.

• Compliance friction is rising — even software companies are being asked for W-8BEN forms, U.S. tax IDs, or local entities just to maintain platform access or receive payments.

• U.S.-based platforms like AWS, Stripe, Apple, or Google may introduce new compliance hurdles or tax rules.

• Enterprise customers are likely to reduce or delay spending. Longer sales cycles, smaller deal sizes, and tighter procurement budgets are already being felt in some segments.

🛒 E-commerce & DTC Brands

• Heavily reliant on imports and global fulfilment, e-commerce brands may see rising shipping costs, customs delays, and a need to restructure promotions or bundle deals to move slower stock.

• Tariffs on packaging, ingredients, or components could have knock-on pricing effects across multiple product lines.

🏦 Fintech & Regulated Tech Startups

• Less affected by tariffs, but more by regulatory tightening across borders.

• Expect stricter AML, data residency, and reporting standards as governments respond to geopolitical tensions.

• Expansion into the U.S. or Asia-Pacific financial systems may require new licensing or structural changes.

🧬 Health-tech & Biotech

• Some insulation due to the specialised nature of the sector, but startups relying on international trials, lab equipment, or samples may face:

  • Import/export delays,

  • Stricter medical compliance, and

  • Dampened investor appetite in uncertain conditions.

🛡️ Startup-Wide Watchlist: What Every Founder Should Be Monitoring

Across all categories, there are five core risks to keep on your radar:

• Investor Sentiment & Capital Deployment

  U.S. and global investors are more cautious. Expect lower valuations, longer raise cycles, and increased scrutiny. Cash burn and runway are front of mind.

• Compliance Friction

  Global trade complexity is rising. Even for digital businesses, you may need new tax forms, local entities, or legal restructuring just to keep trading internationally.

• Platform & Ecosystem Risks

  Platforms like AWS, Stripe, and Apple are tightening policies. Be alert to policy changes, tax rules, and payout restrictions — especially if you’re based outside the U.S.

• Customer Behaviour Shifts

  As budgets tighten, sales cycles stretch, churn risks grow, and conversion rates may drop — particularly in non-essential or high-churn product categories.

• Hiring & Operational Pressure

  Currency swings, cost-of-living hikes, and shifting labour laws may force startups to pause hiring, streamline teams, or rethink international contractor strategies.

🌏 The Asia-Pacific Angle

This is where it starts to get even more complicated.

China has already responded with reciprocal tariffs, and Trump has threatened to escalate further — with another 50% tariff hike reportedly on the table within days. What we’re seeing is a geopolitical tug-of-war with Asia-Pacific countries caught in the middle.

Some nations are backing down and renegotiating, trying to preserve U.S. trade relationships. Others are hitting back, fuelling the tariff fire.

This could trigger:

• A widening divide between rich and poor economies

• Oversupply of goods in APAC, pushing prices and margins down

• GDP contractions, especially for export-reliant economies

• And eventually, stimulus measures — from rate cuts to direct spending incentives — as governments try to prop up growth. Already being seen as mentioned above with interest rate cuts!

For Australia, the concern isn’t direct tariffs from the U.S. — it’s the flow-on effect from a slowing Chinese economy. Our economy is deeply tied to China via iron ore, agriculture, and retail supply chains. If China slows, we feel it.

📊 Markets & Valuations

The markets have already responded — with a 4% drop in Australia following the initial announcements. Although there’s been some recovery, volatility is here to stay. But for how long?

Overvalued companies may face PE compression, which could spill into the startup world. And while that’s painful in the short term, it might also bring some healthy recalibration to a market that’s been overheated for a while.

🔮 Big Picture Speculation

Some say we’re watching the beginning of a global economic realignment — not just a tariff war.

If you follow thinkers like Ray Dalio, you’ll know the signs: rising debt, declining productivity, shifting world powers, and trade tensions often foreshadow a change in global order.

History might not repeat, but it often rhymes. Is this the moment of shift? Or just another tremor before the real quake?

Time will tell.

What are you seeing in your business?

Have customer behaviours shifted? Are investors slower to commit? Are new compliance challenges creeping in?

💬 Drop your thoughts below — let’s share the signal and cut through the noise.